EV explainers
The math behind the plays that feel wrong
Each guide takes one argued-about blackjack decision and settles it with expected value, in plain English, with the counting shown.
3 minute read
Why you hit 16 against a 10
You bust 62% of the time and it’s still right. What standing actually costs, why surrender quietly beats both, and the three-card wrinkle a paper chart can’t show you.
3 minute read
Never take insurance: the actual math
The friendliest-sounding bet on the felt loses about 7.7 cents per dollar, every time. The whole proof fits on one hand, and “even money” is the same bet in a tuxedo.
Free tool
Interactive basic strategy chart
The best play for every hand, for H17 or S17, with or without double after split and surrender. Tap any cell to see what every option is worth.
More explainers are on the way: splitting 8s against a ten, the “dealer bust card” myth, and what 6:5 blackjack really costs.